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Mobile Semiconductor Market Share Forecast 2012-2017

Published November 2013

Authors: Linley Gwennap

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Forecasting Winners and Losers

Mobile Semiconductor Market Share Forecast 2012-2017” provides a first look at 2013 market share and a forecast for market share through 2017. This report is unique in breaking down market share by vendor throughout the forecast period. Our model uses ongoing shifts in OEM share, technology (e.g., transition to integrated Wi-Fi), and product categories (e.g., tablet computers) to forecast which chip suppliers will benefit and which will lose out. This report forecasts market size and vendor share for six categories of semiconductors for mobile applications: cellular baseband processors, application processors, Bluetooth transceivers, mobile Wi-Fi chips, GPS receivers, and NFC chips. Data includes both revenue and unit estimates for the leading vendors of each of these products. The report includes final 2012 share, preliminary 2013 share, and 2013-2017 forecasts of the leading vendors’ market share for each category.

This unique report also provides an overall forecast of total units and revenue for each product category, with appropriate breakouts. For example, baseband processors are forecast by air interface, application processors by integration level, and connectivity chips by combo category. Our methodology combines bottoms-up interviews with chip suppliers with tops-down analysis of OEM shipments and their suppliers.

The report provides the detailed market information needed to sort out the dynamics of this market. With this report, chip vendors, OEMs, and investors will readily see which companies are the leading suppliers in a given product market, how these companies’ positions are changing, how big the mature product markets are, and how fast the emerging categories are growing. Companies covered in the report include Broadcom, Freescale, Intel, Marvell, MediaTek, Nvidia, Qualcomm/Atheros, Samsung/CSR, Spreadtrum, and Texas Instruments. This new edition forecasts the effects of ST-Ericsson’s dissolution, Samsung’s acquisition of CSR’s mobile products, and emerging Asian vendors such as Allwinner, Rockchip, and RDA Microelectronics.

The report includes a brief text summary providing analysis of the data and a set of market share tables and figures for each category. Companies purchasing a corporate license also receive the tables in Microsoft Excel form .

Market Research From The Industry Experts

As the leading vendor of analysis for communications semiconductors, The Linley Group has the expertise to develop a high-quality set of market estimates. Our entire analyst team applies its extensive experience and network of industry contacts to deliver the quantitative information you need to make informed business decisions.

Whether you are looking for a well-established vendor to source from, a vendor to partner with, or a rising company to invest in, this report will cut your research time and save you money. Order "Mobile Semiconductor Market Share Forecast 2012-2017" today.

This report is written for:

  • Product managers and executives seeking to assess the performance of their product lines over the past year or to identify areas in which to invest or divest.
  • Strategic sourcing professionals and engineers at OEMs seeking information about semiconductor suppliers.
  • Investors and financial analysts seeking data to support investment decisions.
  • Public-relations professionals seeking to quantify their client’s success.

This report tracks mobile semiconductors that totaled $31.7 billion in 2012 revenue; we forecast this total to grow to $43.9 billion in 2017. This total includes cellular baseband processors and their associated RF and power-management chips, application processors (AP), mobile Wi-Fi chips, mo­bile Bluetooth chips, GPS chips, NFC chips, and combo connectivity chips. Baseband processors, including those with an integrated AP, com­prise the largest segment of this market, generating $19.2 billion in 2012 alone.

Changes in the shipments of wireless handsets, smartphones, tablet com­puters, and other mobile devices have a large effect on the sales of these mobile chips. In 2013, Samsung, LG, and Lenovo are gaining share in both smartphones and overall handsets, whereas Nokia, HTC, and RIM continue to decline. Nokia’s pending acquisition by Microsoft will greatly change that company’s handset strategy. These changes, along with sup­plier changes at several lead­ing vendors, help some chip suppliers and hurt others.

The market is also being roiled by vendor transitions. After TI and CSR exited the smartphone market in 2012, the past year has seen Renesas and ST-Ericsson withdraw. MediaTek and Spreadtrum have released strong new smartphone products, and RDA Microelectronics has emerged as a low-end baseband supplier. These changes put new opportunities into play and remove others from the table.

Qualcomm is gaining share in baseband processors because of the on­going shift from GSM (which it does not supply) to UMTS (where it is a leader). We expect its unit shipments to rise from 616 million in 2012 to 734 million in 2013, maintaining its lead­ing market share. Qualcomm’s average selling price (ASP) is rising because of its dominance in LTE, which serves the top end of the market. Over the next few years, how­ever, we expect this ASP to fall as competitors enter the LTE market.

MediaTek is shifting its focus from 2G basic phones to 3G smartphones. In just two years, the company has become the second leading vendor of smartphone processors, trailing only Qualcomm. It also ranks second in 3G baseband shipments. This shift is boosting MediaTek’s ASP from $4.37 in 2012 to a projected $5.47 in 2013, helping the company gain share on a revenue basis. Given that most smartphone growth will be at the low end, we forecast continued strong growth for MediaTek through 2017.

The most significant trend in application processors is the integration of the AP into the cellular baseband (AP+BB). In 2012, AP+BB shipments exceeded standalone AP shipments for the first time, and this gap will continue to widen, with AP+BB comprising 68% of all application pro­ces­sors in 2017. Still, the standalone AP market will see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% from 2012 to 2017 to reach 743 million units, mostly going into tablets and iPhones.

In 2013, the top AP vendor is Qualcomm, with 29.3% projected share. MediaTek ranks second with 220 million processors. This total is actually surpassed by internal consumption of application processors, mainly by Apple, which totals 18.5% of all AP chips. When considering only stand­alone AP chips, Samsung is the leader with its Exynos processor, but Qualcomm is climbing the charts with wins in the Nexus 7 and Kindle HDX tablets. We also rank Allwinner and Rockchip in the top five in this category, on the basis of their ship­ments into low-cost tablets and similar devices. These Taiwanese vendors rank much lower, however, on a reve­nue basis.

Like the AP, Wi-Fi is now being absorbed into the base­band processor. We forecast that baseband-integrated Wi-Fi will rise from 8% of all Wi-Fi chips in 2013 to 56% in 2017. Qualcomm’s integrated solution is gaining traction, and now MediaTek and Spreadtrum have introduced similar products. As a result of this shift, shipments of tradi­tional Wi-Fi combo chips will have just 2.3% CAGR during the fore­cast period.

This shift is bad news for Broadcom, which ships 56% of all mobile Wi‑Fi chips in 2013 but only 6% of baseband processors. We forecast its Wi-Fi share to fall during this transition, reaching 39.3% in 2017. Overall Wi-Fi growth, however, will help the company maintain a positive CAGR in unit shipments, although its ASP will decline. Qualcomm, MediaTek, and other processor vendors will gain Wi-Fi share because of this inte­gra­tion trend.

Smartphones and tablets now consume 89% of all mobile connectivity chips, causing connectivity vendors to focus on combo chips that supply as many of the main functions (Wi-Fi, GPS, Bluetooth, and FM) as possi­ble. Three-way combos (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and FM) are the most common option today, with a shift to four-way combos coming in 2014. As stand­alone connectivity chips disappear, the market share for Bluetooth and GPS chips is becoming quite similar to that of Wi-Fi chips.

NFC deployment is rising despite its omission in the iPhone 5s. Samsung offers it in most of its high-end devices, including the Galaxy S4. We estimate the NFC attach rate at 11% of all handsets in 2013, rising to 53% in 2017. This growth will drive shipments of mobile NFC chips to 1.46 billion units in that year, according to our forecast. Most of these chips, however, will be either combo chips or cellular basebands that integrate the NFC function. The current leaders in NFC chip shipments, NXP and Inside Secure, will not benefit from this trend because they lack the technologies required to create integrated solutions. In fact, Broadcom will become the market leader in 2014, with familiar faces such as Qual­comm and MediaTek also gaining

List of Figures
List of Tables
About the Authors
About the Publisher
Executive Summary
1 Introduction
Product Categorization
Report Organization
Forecast Methodology
General Guidelines
2 Mobile Devices
Mobile-Device Shipments
All Device Types
Smartphone Shipments
Handset Shipments
Connectivity Usage
3 Cellular Baseband Processors
Industry Forecast
Forecast by Application
Forecast by Integration Type
Forecast by Cellular Protocol
Revenue and ASP Forecast
Market Share
Shipments by Vendor
Revenue by Vendor
Market-Share Forecast
Shipments by Vendor
3G/4G Shipments by Vendor
Revenue by Vendor
4 Application Processors
Industry Forecast
Forecast by Application
Forecast by Integration Type
Forecast by Core Count
Revenue and ASP Forecast
Market Share
Shipments by Vendor
Standalone Shipments by Vendor
Revenue by Vendor
Market-Share Forecast
Shipments by Vendor
Standalone-AP Shipments by Vendor
Standalone-AP Revenue by Vendor
5 Mobile Wi-Fi Chips
Industry Forecast
Forecast by Application
Forecast by Integration Type
Forecast by Combo Function
Revenue and ASP Forecast
Market Share
Shipments by Vendor
Revenue by Vendor
Market-Share Forecast
All Shipments by Vendor
Combo Shipments by Vendor
Combo Revenue by Vendor
Standalone Shipments by Vendor
6 Mobile Bluetooth Chips
Industry Forecast
Forecast by Application
Forecast by Integration Type
Revenue and ASP Forecast
Market Share
Shipments by Vendor
Revenue by Vendor
Market-Share Forecast
All Shipments by Vendor
Combo Shipments by Vendor
Combo Revenue by Vendor
Standalone Shipments by Vendor
7 Mobile GPS Chips
Industry Forecast
Forecast by Application
Forecast by Integration Type
Revenue and ASP Forecast
Market Share
Shipments by Vendor
Revenue by Vendor
Market-Share Forecast
All Shipments by Vendor
Standalone Shipments by Vendor
Standalone Revenue by Vendor
8 Mobile NFC Chips
Industry Forecast
Forecast by Integration Type
Market Share
Shipments by Vendor
Revenue by Vendor
Market-Share Forecast
All Shipments by Vendor
Standalone Shipments by Vendor
Standalone Revenue by Vendor
9 Conclusions
Connectivity Forecast
Combo Connectivity Chips by Type
Connectivity Revenue by Type
Connectivity Revenue by Vendor
Mobile-Semiconductor Forecast
Total Mobile Revenue
Mobile Revenue by Vendor
Figure 1‑1. Taxonomy of mobile semiconductors.
Figure 2‑1. Industry shipments of mobile devices by type, 20102017.
Figure 2‑2. Unit market share of smartphones by vendor, 20112017.
Figure 2‑3. Unit market share of cellular handsets by vendor, 20112017.
Figure 2‑4. Handset attach rates for connectivity functions, 20102017.
Figure 3‑1. Industry shipments of cellular-baseband processors by application, 20102017.
Figure 3‑2. Industry shipments of cellular-baseband processors by integration type, 20102017.
Figure 3‑3. Industry shipments of cellular-baseband processors by air interface, 20102017.
Figure 3‑4. Industry revenue of cellular-baseband processors by air interface, 20102017.
Figure 3‑5. Unit market share of cellular-baseband processors by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 3‑6. Revenue market share of cellular-baseband processors by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 3‑7. Unit market share of cellular-baseband processors by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 3‑8. Unit market share of 3G/4G cellular-baseband processors by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 3‑9. Revenue market share of cellular-baseband processors by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 4‑1. Industry shipments of application processors by application, 20102017.
Figure 4‑2. Industry shipments of application processors by integration type, 20102017.
Figure 4‑3. Industry shipments of application processors by core count, 20102017.
Figure 4‑4. Industry revenue of standalone AP chips by application, 20102017.
Figure 4‑5. Industry revenue of merchant standalone AP chips by application, 20102017.
Figure 4‑6. Unit market share of merchant application processors by vendor, 20112012.
Figure 4‑7. Unit market share of standalone AP by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 4‑8. Revenue market share of standalone AP by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 4‑9. Unit market share of application processors by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 4‑10. Unit market share of standalone AP by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 4‑11. Revenue market share of standalone AP by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 5‑1. Industry shipments of Wi-Fi chips by application, 20102017.
Figure 5‑2. Industry shipments of Wi-Fi chips by integration type, 20102017.
Figure 5‑3. Industry shipments of Wi-Fi combo chips by function, 20102017.
Figure 5‑4. Industry ASP and revenue of Wi-Fi chips by integration type, 20102017.
Figure 5‑5. Unit market share of Wi-Fi standalone and combos by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 5‑6. Revenue market share of Wi-Fi standalone and combos by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 5‑7. Unit market share of all Wi-Fi chips by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 5‑8. Unit market share of Wi-Fi standalone and combos by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 5‑9. Revenue market share of Wi-Fi standalone and combos by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 5‑10. Unit market share of standalone Wi-Fi chips by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 6‑1. Industry shipments of Bluetooth chips by application, 20102017.
Figure 6‑2. Industry shipments of Bluetooth chips by integration type, 20092016.
Figure 6‑3. Industry revenue of Bluetooth standalone and combos, 20102017.
Figure 6‑4. Unit market share of Bluetooth standalone and combos by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 6‑5. Revenue market share of Bluetooth standalone and combos by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 6‑6. Unit market share of all Bluetooth chips by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 6‑7. Unit market share of Bluetooth standalone and combos by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 6‑8. Revenue market share of Bluetooth standalone and combos by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 6‑9. Unit market share of standalone Bluetooth chips by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 7‑1. Industry shipments of GPS chips by application, 20102017.
Figure 7‑2. Industry shipments of GPS chips by integration type, 20102017.
Figure 7‑3. Industry revenue of standalone GPS chips, 2010-2017.
Figure 7‑4. Unit market share of all GPS chips by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 7‑5. Revenue market share of standalone GPS chips by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 7‑6. Unit market share of all GPS chips by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 7‑7. Unit market share of standalone GPS chips by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 7‑8. Revenue market share of standalone GPS chips by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 8‑1. Industry shipments of NFC chips by integration type, 20122017.
Figure 8‑2. Unit market share of all NFC chips by vendor, 20112012.
Figure 8‑3. Revenue market share of standalone NFC chips by vendor, 20122013.
Figure 8‑4. Unit market share of all NFC chips by vendor, 20122017.
Figure 8‑5. Unit market share of standalone NFC chips by vendor, 20122017.
Figure 8‑6. Revenue market share of standalone NFC chips by vendor, 20122017.
Figure 9‑1. Industry shipments of connectivity chips by type, 20102017.
Figure 9‑2. Industry revenue of connectivity chips by type, 20102017.
Figure 9‑3. Revenue market share of connectivity chips by vendor, 20102017.
Figure 9‑4. Revenue market share of mobile chips by vendor, 20102017.
Table 2‑1. Industry shipments of mobile devices by type, 20122017.
Table 2‑2. Industry shipments of smartphones by vendor, 20122017.
Table 2‑3. Industry shipments of cellular handsets by vendor, 20122017.
Table 2‑4. Handset attach rates for connectivity functions, 20122017.
Table 3‑1. Industry shipments of cellular-baseband processors by application, 20122017.
Table 3‑2. Industry shipments of cellular-baseband processors by integration type, 20122017.
Table 3‑3. Industry shipments of cellular-baseband processors by air interface, 20122017.
Table 3‑4. Industry ASP and revenue of cellular-baseband processors, 20122017.
Table 3‑5. Industry shipments of cellular-baseband processors by vendor, 20122013.
Table 3‑6. Industry revenue of cellular-baseband processors by vendor, 20112012.
Table 3‑7. Industry shipments of cellular-baseband processors by vendor, 20122017.
Table 3‑8. Industry shipments of 3G/4G baseband processors by vendor, 20122017.
Table 3‑9. Industry revenue of cellular-baseband processors by vendor, 20122017.
Table 4‑1. Industry shipments of application processors by application, 20122017.
Table 4‑2. Industry shipments of application processors by integration type, 20122017.
Table 4‑3. Industry shipments of application processors by core count, 20122017.
Table 4‑4. Industry ASP and revenue of standalone AP chips by application, 20122017.
Table 4‑5. Industry ASP and revenue of merchant standalone AP by application, 20122017.
Table 4‑6. Industry shipments of application processors by vendor, 20122013.
Table 4‑7. Industry shipments of standalone AP by vendor, 20122013.
Table 4‑8. Industry revenue of standalone AP by vendor, 20122013.
Table 4‑9. Industry shipments of application processors by vendor, 20122017.
Table 4‑10. Industry shipments of standalone AP by vendor, 20122017.
Table 4‑11. Industry revenue of standalone AP by vendor, 20122017.
Table 5‑1. Industry shipments of Wi-Fi chips by application, 20122017.
Table 5‑2. Industry shipments of Wi-Fi chips by integration type, 20122017.
Table 5‑3. Industry shipments of Wi-Fi combo chips by function, 20122017.
Table 5‑4. Industry ASP and revenue of Wi-Fi chips by integration type, 20122017.
Table 5‑5. Industry shipments of standalone and combo Wi-Fi chips by vendor, 20122013.
Table 5‑6. Industry revenue of standalone and combo Wi-Fi chips by vendor, 20122013.
Table 5‑7. Industry shipments of all Wi-Fi chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 5‑8. Industry shipments of Wi-Fi standalone and combo chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 5‑9. Industry revenue of Wi-Fi standalone and combo chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 5‑10. Industry shipments of standalone Wi-Fi chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 6‑1. Industry shipments of Bluetooth chips by application, 20122017.
Table 6‑2. Industry shipments of Bluetooth chips by integration type, 20122017.
Table 6‑3. Industry ASP and revenue of Bluetooth standalone and combos, 20112016.
Table 6‑4. Industry shipments of Bluetooth standalone and combos by vendor, 20122017.
Table 6‑5. Industry revenue of Bluetooth standalone and combos by vendor, 20122013.
Table 6‑6. Industry shipments of all Bluetooth chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 6‑7. Industry shipments of Bluetooth standalone and combos by vendor, 20122017.
Table 6‑8. Industry revenue of Bluetooth standalone and combos by vendor, 20122017.
Table 6‑9. Industry shipments of standalone Bluetooth chips by vendor, 2012201.
Table 7‑1. Industry shipments of GPS chips by application, 20122017.
Table 7‑2. Industry shipments of GPS chips by integration type, 20122017.
Table 7‑3. Industry ASP and revenue of standalone GPS chips, 20122017.
Table 7‑4. Industry shipments of all GPS chips by vendor, 20122013.
Table 7‑5. Industry revenue of standalone GPS chips by vendor, 20122013.
Table 7‑6. Shipments of all GPS chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 7‑7. Shipments of standalone GPS chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 7‑8. Industry revenue of standalone GPS chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 8‑1. Industry shipments of NFC chips by integration type, 20122017.
Table 8‑2. Industry shipments of all NFC chips by vendor, 20122013.
Table 8‑3. Industry revenue of standalone NFC chips by vendor, 20122013.
Table 8‑4. Shipments of all NFC chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 8‑5. Shipments of standalone NFC chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 8‑6. Industry revenue of standalone NFC chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 9‑1. Industry shipments of connectivity chips, 20122017.
Table 9‑2. Industry revenue of connectivity chips, 20122017.
Table 9‑3. Industry revenue of connectivity chips by vendor, 20122017.
Table 9‑4. Industry revenue of mobile chips by vendor, 20122017.

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